China’s Mismanaged Economy at a Critical Crossroad | Hoover Institution

Tuesday, October 24, 2023 Hoover Institution | Stanford University Mickey Levy, chief economist for Asia and the US at Berenberg Capital Markets, and visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution, discussed “China’s Mismanaged Economy at a Critical Crossroad.” PARTICIPANTS Mickey Levy, John Taylor, Michael Bernstam, Justin Berrie, Patrick Biggs, Steven Blitz, Michael Bordo, Pedro Carvalho, John Cochrane, Chris Dauer, Steven Davis, Randi Dewitty, Shana Farley, Andy Filardo, Christopher Ford, James Goodby, Bob Hall, Eric Hanushek, Adele Hayutin, Robert Hetzel, Robert Hodrick, Nicholas Hope, Bob Joss, Marc Katz, Donald Koch, Evan Koenig, Jeff Lacker, David Laidler, Charles Lindsey, David Malpass, Pauline Meehan, Michael Melvin, Kana Norimoto, Robert Oster, Radek Paluszynski, Paul Peterson, Valerie Ramey, Frank Smets, Tom Stephenson, Jack Tatom, Yevgeniy Teryoshin ISSUES DISCUSSED Mickey Levy, chief economist for Asia and the US at Berenberg Capital Markets, and visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution, discussed “China’s Mismanaged Economy at a Critical Crossroad.” John Taylor, the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, was the moderator. SUMMARY OF TALK China’s earlier opening of its economy to free enterprise and capitalism played a critical role in its extraordinary growth that lifted it from an impoverished nation to the world’s second biggest economy and the driver of global trade, but President Xi’s clamp down on free enterprise and tightening central control has generated current economic woes. This presentation describes how central planning led to the misallocation of resources that resulted in the current excesses in real estate and debt that now weigh on China’s economy. Based on earlier experiences of Japan and the U.S. with asset and real estate bubbles, unwinding China’s excesses are likely to take a while. China’s economic woes are having measurable impacts on global trade and economic performance. The presentation concludes with a brief assessment of China’s longer-run potential growth based on a simple neoclassical growth model. Under the current economic regime, the outlook for potential growth is pessimistic. To read the paper, click the following link https://www.hoover.org/research/chinas-bill-comes-due To read the slides, click the following link https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/2023-10/China%20Presentation%20for%20Hoover%2024%20Oct%202023%20%20-%20%20Read-Only.pdf