The West is Learning the Wrong Lessons about Airpower in Ukraine

Update on the conflict in Ukraine for August 19, 2024…

- As Ukrainian forces continue military operations in Kursk, Russia, the actual line of contact continues to crumble as Russian forces advance;

- Ukrainian progress in Kursk was due to a lack of Russian troops which are now flooding the area to contain and then roll back Ukrainian troops;

- Russian advances along the line of contact consists of overtaking extensive Ukrainian defensive positions;

- The Kursk incursion will raise the cost for Russia, but ultimately will accelerate the collapse of Ukraine’s own fighting capacity;

- US JASSM cruise missiles are being considered for Ukraine, a critical munition required for any future operation against China and a munition that is not produced in quantities equal or larger than even Russian-made cruise missiles;

- JASSMs are air-launched, meaning their use will be restricted by Ukraine’s small number of military aircraft capable of launching them;

For Daily Updates on Ukraine:

The Duran (Telegram): https://t.me/thedurancom + YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos
Scott of Kalibrated (Telegram): https://t.me/kalibrated + YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Kalibratedwithscott/videos
Mark Sleboda (Telegram): https://t.me/TheRealPolitick + Substack: https://marksleboda.substack.com/

References:

Politico - As Kyiv makes gains in Kursk, Russia strikes back in Donetsk (August 15, 2024):
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-offensive-prisoners-of-war-invasion-kursk-zelenskyy-putin/
Washington Post - Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine (December 2023):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/
NY Times - The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin (February 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html
NYT - A Mysterious Plot Prompts a Rare Call From Russia to the Pentagon (July 26, 2024):
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/us/politics/austin-russia-ukraine-defense-plot.html
War Zone - JASSM Stealth Cruise Missiles Now On The Table For Ukraine: Report (August 15, 2024):
https://www.twz.com/air/jassm-stealth-cruise-missiles-now-on-the-table-for-ukraine-report
Politico - Biden ‘open’ to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine (August 15, 2024):
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/biden-missiles-ukraine-russia-00174147
Air and Space Forces Magazine - Lockheed Martin Looks to Boost LRASM Production as US Rushes to Buy Anti-Ship Weapons (April 2023):
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/lockheed-martin-double-lrasm-production/
Long War Journal - Estimating Russia’s Kh-101 Production Capacity (December 2022):
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2022/12/estimating-russias-kh-101-production-capacity.php
Reuters - Ukraine says Russia has launched over 8,000 missiles, 4,630 drones during war (February 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russia-has-launched-over-8000-missiles-4630-drones-during-war-2024-02-22/
Kyiv Post - GUR Reveals Russia's Missile Stockpile and Production Capacity (November 2023):
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23736
RFE/RL - Satellite Images Suggest Russia Is Ramping Up Production Capacity For Its War Against Ukraine (November 2023):
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ramping-up-war-production/32658857.html
CSIS - The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (January 2023):
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=XlDrfCUHet8OZSOYW_9PWx3xtc0ScGHn

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- Western media admits Ukraine is losing ground and suffering from growing manpower, arms, and ammunition shortages;

- After US-European pledges to increase artillery shell production, both have fallen far short of their targets and will be producing less ammunition in 2026 than Russia is producing now;

- Western policymakers promoting claims that robots, automation, and simplifying manufacturing can allow the West to match Russian and Chinese production are unrealistic;

References:

SITREP

BBC - Europe must brace for decade of Ukraine war - Nato chief (July 19, 2024):
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c03l9eky1p9o
Politico - Top NATO general praises Ukraine’s ‘great’ war strategy (July 19, 2024):
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-has-great-war-strategy-but-needs-to-be-able-to-prosecute-it-top-nato-general-says/
CNN - The West finally allowed Ukraine to strike back at Russia — and it seems to be working (July 15, 2024):
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/14/europe/western-weapons-ukraine-russia-intl-cmd/index.html

Artillery Shells

RFE/RL - EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises (July 8, 2024):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-weapons-shells-european-union-eu-war-russia-investigation/33025300.html
Reuters - Years of miscalculations by U.S., NATO led to dire shell shortage in Ukraine (July 19, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-artillery/

Drone Warfare

Forbes - Supply Chain Drones: Novelty Or News? (June 20, 2024):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinomarah/2024/06/20/supply-chain-drones-novelty-or-news/
Phys dot Org - AI-enhanced model predicts wheat health across diverse soils using drone data (December 2023):
https://phys.org/news/2023-12-ai-enhanced-wheat-health-diverse-soils.html#google_vignette
Business Insider - Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt quietly created a company called White Stork, which plans to build AI-powered attack drones, report says (January 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/google-eric-schmidt-ai-attack-drones-white-stork-2024-1
Business Insider - Eric Schmidt is poaching from Apple, SpaceX, and Google for his secretive AI military drone project (June 2024):
https://www.businessinsider.com/eric-schmidt-poaches-apple-spacex-google-ai-drones-report-2024-6
Politico - ‘Our Oppenheimer moment’ — In Ukraine, the robot wars have already begun (May 2024):
https://www.politico.eu/article/robots-coming-ukraine-testing-ground-ai-artificial-intelligence-powered-combat-war-russia/
Guardian - AI’s ‘Oppenheimer moment’: autonomous weapons enter the battlefield (July 14, 2024):
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jul/14/ais-oppenheimer-moment-autonomous-weapons-enter-the-battlefield

Robots and Skilled Labor

Statista - China Leads Growth of Global Industrial Robot Stock (November 2023):
https://www.statista.com/chart/31337/new-installations-of-industrial-robots-by-country/
European Commission - World Robotics Report 2020 by International Federation of Robots (January 2021):
https://ec.europa.eu/newsroom/rtd/items/700621/en

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- The Western media is now admitting to a wide variety of metrics indicating Ukraine's spiral downward amid the ongoing conflict with Russia;

- Reports indicate not only manpower shortages but a problem with properly training conscripts for combat;

- Ukraine continues to suffer from a wide variety of arms and ammunition shortages, with the West now finally admitting Western military industrial production has categorically failed to meet the demands of the conflict in Ukraine;

- NATO's summit in Washington DC pledged to expand Western military industrial production but failed to lay out any of the key steps required to do so beyond political posturing;

For daily updates on the conflict in Ukraine:

The Duran (Telegram): https://t.me/thedurancom
Scott of Kalibrated (Telegram): https://t.me/kalibrated
Mark Sleboda (Telegram): https://t.me/TheRealPolitick

References:

DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (July 11, 2024):
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3835746/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises (July 8, 2024):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-weapons-shells-european-union-eu-war-russia-investigation/33025300.html
Wall Street Journal - NATO Allies Confront ‘Serious Gap’ in Arms Production to Counter Russia (July 9, 2024):
https://www.wsj.com/world/nato-allies-confront-serious-gap-in-arms-production-to-counter-russia-3b5b75f9
CSIS - The State of Russia's Defense Industry After Two Years of War and Sanctions (June 25, 2024):
https://www.youtube.com/live/00tPLu0g_es?si=g_g_3_SmcIZ_29Wq
WSJ - High-Tech American Weapons Work Against Russia—Until They Don’t (July 10, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/world/us-weapons-russia-ukraine-0eed240c
Bloomberg - Ukraine’s F-16 Ambitions Snarled by Language Barrier, Runways and Parts (July 12, 2024):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-12/ukraine-s-f-16-ambitions-snarled-by-language-barrier-runways-and-parts
Washington Post - Basic training in Ukraine is barely covering the basics, commanders say (June 2, 2024):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/ukraine-training-soldiers-mobilization-war/

Where to Find My Work:

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- The US has dominated the foreign and domestic policy of the Southeast Asian country of the Philippines for decades, having formally ruled the nation as a colony from 1898-1946;

- The Philippines has been used for US military basing throughout the Cold War and is now enlarging its military footprint on the Philippines under the government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.;

- It was under President Rodrigo Duterte that the US was being pressured to leave the nation while also expanding closer ties with China who was and still is the Philippines’ largest trade partner;

- Today, infrastructure projects underway during President Duterte’s administration have been literally torn down, instead military bases are being built to point missiles at the Philippines’ largest trade partner, China;

- The US through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) has created large numbers of media platforms, political organizations, and education programs meant to convince the Philippine people that serving US foreign policy objectives is in their own best interests;

- The ultimate irony is that these US efforts have convinced Filipinos that fighting China is necessary to protect their sovereignty, when in fact US influence over Philippine foreign policy already constitutes the usurpation of Philippine sovereignty;

- Ukraine provides an example of where this process of the US using the Philippines as a proxy against China ultimately leads if the Philippine people are unable to recognize their current government is serving US interests at the expense of their own interests;

References:

SCMP - China-Philippines ties on ‘brink of total breakdown’: unpacking the collapse (June 29, 2024):
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3268506/china-philippines-ties-brink-total-breakdown-unpacking-collapse
AP - China publicizes for the first time what it claims is a 2016 agreement with Philippines (May 3, 2024):
https://apnews.com/article/china-south-china-sea-philippines-alleged-agreement-0006abb98502727972872bcecfd49a51
SCMP - South China Sea: Philippine admiral at centre of ‘new deal’ saga breaks silence on alleged pact with Beijing (May 2024):
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3263692/south-china-sea-philippine-admiral-centre-new-deal-saga-breaks-silence-alleged-pact-beijing
US State Department, Office of the Historian - The Philippine-American War, 1899–1902:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1899-1913/war
Rappler - Duterte falsely claims CIA funds Rappler (October 2017):
https://www.rappler.com/philippines/185098-duterte-false-claim-cia-funds-rappler-american-ownership/
National Endowment for Democracy (NED) - Nobel Peace Prize Winner Maria Ressa Joins World Movement for Democracy at NED as Chairperson (October 2022):
https://www.ned.org/nobel-peace-prize-winner-maria-ressa-joins-world-movement-for-democracy-at-ned-as-chairperson/
WDM - Maria Ressa – Chair:
https://www.movedemocracy.org/person/maria-ressa-chair
NYT - Political Meddling by Outsiders: Not New for U.S. (1997):
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/03/31/us/political-meddling-by-outsiders-not-new-for-us.html
NYT - MISSIONARIES FOR DEMOCRACY: U.S. AID FOR GLOBAL PLURALISM (1986):
https://www.nytimes.com/1986/06/01/world/missionaries-for-democracy-us-aid-for-global-pluralism.html
The Guardian - US campaign behind the turmoil in Kiev (November 2004):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa
NYT - U.S. Groups Helped Nurture Arab Uprisings (April 2011):
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/15aid.html
Reuters - Pentagon ran secret anti-vax campaign to undermine China during pandemic (June 14, 2024):
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-covid-propaganda/

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